NOAA gives the 2026 Atlantic season a 55% chance of running below normal, largely because of a strengthening El Nino. The forecast comes with an explicit caveat: it only takes one storm.

Rain ran nearly 40% below normal for the month, with no low-pressure systems forming and El Nino building, before the monsoon finally turned toward Delhi.

The Pacific has flipped into its warm phase, and the agency’s new measuring stick says this one could be big. Here is what an El Niño winter usually brings.